26 December 2007


If a nuclear war between Israel and Iran, 16-20 million Iranians vs. 200,000-800,000 Israelis (''חס ו), according to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies .

A nuclear war would last about three weeks and end with the annihilation of Iran, due to Israel's possession of weapons with a far larger yield. Israel would have a larger chance of survival. The report does not predict how many deaths would eventually be due to possible nuclear fallout.

Even if Iran gained the means and knowledge to create nuclear weapons, it would still be limited to 100 kiloton weapons, which can cause a far smaller radius of destruction than the 1 megaton bombs Israel possesses.

Possible targets for an Iranian strike are the Tel Aviv and Haifa , while possible targets in Iran would be Teheran, Tabriz, Qazvin, Esfahan, Shiraz, Yazd, Kerman, Qom, Ahwaz and Kermanshah.

Israel's Arrow missile defense system as an obstacle facing a possible Iranian strike and could shoot down most of the missiles. Israel would be capable of hitting most of the Iranian cities with pinpoint accuracy due to the high resolution satellite imagery systems at its disposal.

Another scenario presented includes Syria jumping in and lobbing missiles with chemical and biological warheads into Israeli cities. According to the report, up to 800,000 Israelis would be killed if that were to happen. Syria, however, would be forced to grapple with the deaths of approximately 18 million of its citizens were Israel to respond with its nuclear arsenal.

Israel would launch a nuclear attack on Cairo and additional Egyptian cities, and would destroy the Aswan Dam if Egypt joined the fray.

1 comment:

Rafael V. Rabinovich said...

Wouldn't it be easier to just arrange for an Iranian Pinochet to take over the government in a violent coup, then eliminate the Shiite Mulas and call for democratic elections within a couple of years?
A few thousand would die in the process. But a few thousands beats the heck out of this dooms-day scenario!